NFL Method of First Score Rules: Opening Drive Markets

Pricing Touchdowns, Field Goals, and Safeties

Tampa Bay versus Atlanta, 2020. I had backed “first score touchdown” at 4/5, expecting the Buccaneers’ offence to march down the field on their opening drive. They did march down the field. They reached the Falcons’ 12-yard line. And then they stalled. Field goal. My ticket lost. Three points for the home side, zero points for my bet, and a lesson in the granular settlement rules that govern method-of-first-score markets. The first score of an NFL game can be any of three scoring play types – touchdown, field goal, safety – and the operator’s settlement engine treats each one independently.

Method-of-first-score is one of the more popular UK NFL prop markets because it produces a quick resolution. Most NFL games see a first score within the first quarter, meaning the bet settles before the end of the first 15 minutes of game time. Among UK paid-search activity for NFL markets, William Hill commanded 37.83% of click-share in February 2026 and Bet365 16.2%, with both operators offering method-of-first-score prominently on their game pages and applying regular price boosts during the regular season.

The standard selections in the method-of-first-score market

The market typically offers six selections: Team A touchdown, Team B touchdown, Team A field goal, Team B field goal, Team A safety, Team B safety. Some operators also include a “no score” or “scoreless half” option that pays out if the game reaches the second quarter without any scoring. The “no score” option has long odds because most NFL games produce a first score within the first quarter.

The pricing reflects the operator’s view of how the game will open. A favoured offensive team might price the touchdown around 5/4 to 7/4, with the field goal at 9/2 to 5/1 and the safety at 80/1 or longer. The underdog selection prices are scaled to reflect the underdog status, with the safety still extremely long.

The settlement is automatic and clears within seconds of the first score being officially confirmed. The operator’s settlement engine reads the scoring data from the official feed, identifies the team and method of the first score, and settles all open method-of-first-score tickets accordingly. The losing selections settle as losses, and the winning selection pays out at its quoted price.

How specific scoring plays count for first score settlement

The “touchdown” selection pays out on any touchdown by the relevant team, regardless of how the touchdown was scored. A rushing touchdown counts. A receiving touchdown counts. A passing touchdown by the quarterback counts as a touchdown for the team (even though the team-level credit goes to whichever player scored the touchdown). Defensive touchdowns by the relevant team also count.

The “field goal” selection pays out on any field goal by the relevant team. The field goal must be successful – a missed field goal attempt does not settle the field goal market. The settlement happens at the moment the kick is confirmed good, with the operator’s engine reading the kick result and clearing all open method-of-first-score tickets.

The “safety” selection pays out if the relevant team’s defence scores a safety as the first score of the game. Safeties are extremely rare and almost never occur in the opening minutes of a game (because both teams need to have possessed the ball for a safety to be possible). The safety market on method-of-first-score is priced at very long odds – typically 50/1 to 100/1 or longer – reflecting the rarity of the outcome.

The 1-point safety and other edge cases

The 1-point safety is theoretically possible but has never occurred in NFL history during a regulation period. It would require the offensive team to commit an end-zone error during a conversion attempt after a touchdown, and the first conversion attempt cannot precede a touchdown. The method-of-first-score market does not typically price the 1-point safety as a selection because the prerequisite touchdown would have already settled the market.

Defensive extra-point returns, where the defending team returns a blocked or intercepted conversion to the opposite end zone for two points, are not the first score of the game by definition – they follow a touchdown. The method-of-first-score market is therefore unaffected by defensive returns on conversions, because the touchdown has already settled the market before the defensive return can occur.

The interaction with the dead heat rule is unusual. Method-of-first-score is not subject to dead heat because only one play can be the first score of the game by definition. Two scoring plays cannot share the “first” status. The settlement is binary on each individual selection, with the team and method that produced the first score winning and everything else losing.

Settlement timing and the live market evolution

The settlement on method-of-first-score happens within seconds of the first score. The operator’s engine reads the scoring data, identifies the team and method, and clears all open tickets immediately. The wallet credit lands within minutes of the settlement for winning tickets.

The in-play market on method-of-first-score is interesting because the prices update continuously as the game progresses. A team that fails to convert its opening drive into a touchdown will see the “no score” option’s price shorten and the touchdown options drift longer. A team that reaches the red zone will see the touchdown option’s price shorten. The pricing engine refreshes every few seconds during play, with the prices reflecting the operator’s real-time view of which method-team combination is most likely to be the first scoring play.

The in-play market suspends during reviews, scoring plays in progress, and other game stoppages, identical to the general in-play suspension rules. The full mechanics of how prop bets settle during games, including inactive player rules, did-not-play rules, and same-game parlay interactions, are covered in the NFL prop bet settlement rules article.

Combining method-of-first-score with other markets

Method-of-first-score is a popular leg in same-game parlays because the bet construction allows the punter to tell a coherent narrative – Team A to score a touchdown first, Team A to win, total over 47.5. The three legs are correlated, with the operator’s pricing engine applying the standard correlation adjustment to compress the boosted price below the naive multiplication.

The combination with anytime touchdown scorer is particularly tight. A bet on Team A to score a touchdown first combined with a specific Team A player to score a touchdown at any time has strong positive correlation, because if Team A’s first score is a touchdown, that touchdown was scored by some specific player on Team A. Most operators allow the combination but apply a substantial correlation adjustment.

The combination with the spread is less correlated. A bet on Team A to score a touchdown first does not strongly predict whether Team A will cover the spread, because the spread reflects the final margin while the first-score market reflects only the opening scoring play. The operator’s correlation adjustment on this combination is small, with the boosted price close to the naive multiplication of the leg prices.

How operators price method-of-first-score across matchups

The pricing varies meaningfully by matchup. A high-scoring game between two elite offences might price the “touchdown” options at 5/4 to 6/4 on each side, with field goals at 4/1 or 5/1 and safeties at 100/1 or longer. A defensive matchup might price field goals at 11/4 or 3/1, with touchdowns at 7/4 to 2/1 and safeties at 80/1.

The “no score in first quarter” option is sometimes published as a separate market with its own pricing. A defensive matchup with a low total might price the no-score-Q1 option at 7/2 or 9/2, reflecting the genuine possibility that the game opens with conservative play-calling and field-position chess. This market is less common than the standard method-of-first-score but appears at the larger UK operators on selected matchups.

The growth in UK NFL betting volumes has driven more sophisticated pricing of method-of-first-score markets. Entain reported 65% growth in UK and Irish NFL punter numbers across the 2024 season, with stakes up 46%, and the increased volume has pulled the pricing on secondary markets closer to fair value. The 2025 regular season averaged 18.7 million viewers per game across the panel, up 10% on the prior year, with more eyeballs producing more data points for operators’ pricing engines to calibrate against.

Created by the "NFL Betting Rules" editorial team.